COTRI China Outbound Tourism Expert Panel find that for January to December 2014 COT Index reading goes down to +5.8 against +6.0 calculated for the period October 2013 to September 2014.
GERMANY – The global members of the COTRI China Outbound Tourism Expert Panel downgraded their forecast for the next twelve months. On a scale from -10 to +10 the forecast for the overall development of China’s outbound tourism for the next year dropped by 0.2 from +6.0 to +5.8 when compared with the last forecast three months earlier.
The primary cause for the somewhat diminished optimism for China’s outbound tourism development is the new Chinese Tourism Law, which has seen the fruits of its labour most clearly at the lower end of the market, where there has been a marked reduction in package tour holidays. The law has clamped down on tour operators responsible for such tours which included such restrictive features as mandatory shopping breaks. As a result the price for these package trips have gone up and in doing so have lost part of their appeal. The irony here is, that there is still a demand market for such trips in China, where any holiday at bargain-basement prices however limited the holiday options may be is better than no holiday at all.
It’s not all doom and gloom though, the process of adapting to the government’s new tourism law can be seen more as growing pains. Indeed the COTRI China Outbound Tourism Expert Panel do forecast a rise in the median reading from last year going from +6 to +7. This together with the UNTWO’s publication of the figures showing that the 97 million Chinese Outbound trips in 2013 already make up 9% of the 1.1 billion international border crossings outbound tourism arrivals document the growing influence of China as a source market for the global tourism development.
A more detailed analysis of the results of the China Outbound Tourism Index readings in the first quarter of 2014 can be found in the January issue of the COTRI publication C.O.M.I China Outbound Market Intelligence.
The China Outbound Tourism Index (COT Index) aims to provide a simple but clear indicator for the analysis and forecast of development of China’s outbound tourism. The COT Index is based on the insights of the members of the COTRI China Outbound Tourism Expert Panel (COTEP). COTEP members are drawn from the leading experts on China’s tourism development from within the global tourism industry and regional, national and international organisations and institutions, including academic, commercial, and media researchers. COTEP members are based both inside and outside of China.
For the COT Index COTEP members are asked to take into account the development of the number of Chinese outbound travellers, the amount spent by Chinese outbound travellers, the level of support from the governments both in China and the destinations and the level of commitment of tourism companies and organisations in China and at their destinations. The numerical assessment is done in the form of single entries for the previous and next year on a scale ranging between -10 and +10, -10 representing an extremely negative development and +10 showing a particularly positive score. From all the submitted assessments the mean is calculated. For the January 2014 Index, 18 COTEP members from all continents provided their evaluations, forecasts and comments.
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